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<b>Bonhams:</b> MANDELSHTAM, OSIP. 1891-1938. Autograph Manuscript, 2 pp, [Petersburg,] January 1913, entitled

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Auction Prices Inch Forward in 2005 - By Michael Stillman Fifteen houses had median sales prices over $1,000 in 2005. By Michael Stillman The prices for rare and antiquarian books and manuscripts inched up a bit higher in 2005, statistics from the Americana Exchange Database of auction records indicated. The year 2005 was an active year, with over 160,000 lots having been offered at book and book-related auctions. The median price for 2005 was $420, an increase of 1.7% from $413 in 2004. See the last paragraph of this article for links to access the complete set of charts of 2005 auction results. While results over the past century have shown the auction price index to increase at a much more rapid rate than the Consumer Price Index, 2005 was an exception. The CPI rose at double the rate of the book auction index, 3.5%. Though much of this was attributable to a 17% increase in the price of energy, the core rate of consumer inflation (computed by removing the volatile energy and food categories) still rose by 2.2%. This was only slightly greater than the rate of inflation for book prices at auction. Nevertheless, this still indicated that books, which generally appreciate at a substantially greater rate than that of inflation for consumer goods, had an off year in 2005. The average price at auction slipped over $200 to $2,745. However, the average price is not considered meaningful for understanding changes in the marketplace. A small number of very high priced items coming up for sale in a particular year can greatly skew the average, even though this means little to the overall market. The median price, at which half of the 160,000 books sold at higher and half at lower prices, is not affected by a small number of high priced items, so it is the most reliable way of understanding what is taking place in the market. Data collected from auction sales by the Americana Exchange revealed many more interesting facts about the traditional (as opposed to online) auction marketplace. The first and third quarters were again the most active. Offerings declined substantially in mid-summer, and to a lesser degree, mid-winter. Pricing also tended to be somewhat higher in the busy periods, perhaps a sign that auction houses hold their best material for the most active buying cycles. While prices were up slightly, there was a small drop in the sell-through percentage. For 2005, 74% of the items listed sold, a decline from 76% last year. 26% failed to obtain the minimum acceptable bid. There was also a slight shift to items selling below the low estimated price versus selling over the high estimate. In 2005, of the lots which were sold, 48% were sold for more than the maximum, compared to 49% last year.
Auction Prices Inch Forward in 2005 - By Michael Stillman none In 2005, 29% sold for less than the low estimate, versus 27% in 2004. This 48%-29% ratio is a bit misleading, since unsold items are also items that were unable to attain the minimum bid. If these are added to items sold below the minimum, below minimum offers exceeded above maximum ones by a ratio of 48%-35%. Last year, it was 45%-37%. It would appear that anticipated selling prices in 2005 rose faster than did actual prices. Results from individual auction houses are always intriguing, though the data may be more of a curiosity then meaningful. For example, high median prices primarily reflect the quality of material handled, rather than the performance of the auction house. However, this information can help a buyer determine which houses are most likely to offer items they can afford, or inform the seller which ones are appropriate to handle the level of books they wish to sell. In 2005, as in 2004, the highest prices were achieved by the various Christie's and Sotheby's locations. These two houses have long dominated the very high-end book market, and 2005 was no exception. Christie's Paris auction had both the highest median and average sale, just as they did in 2004. Their median price was $6,696, down from $7,344 last year, but their average price rose from $22,391 to $24,899. Sotheby's New York just missed the top with a median of $6,600. Ten of the twelve highest medians were held by the five Christie's and five Sotheby's locations. Only Dorothy Sloan, of Austin, Texas, with a median price of $1,725, also broke into the top ten. The lowest for the big two was Christie's of London-South Kensington, still at a healthy $1,310. Four other houses had a median sale price over $1,000: Skinner's of Bolton, Massachusetts, Bonham's San Francisco, and Swann's and Doyle's of New York. Only four houses had a median sale of under $100, a sign that the level of material sold at traditional auctions still remains well above that of eBay. The most active of houses was Bloomsbury's of London, with almost 15,000 lots. That was about 600 more than runner-up Christie's, though their number came across all five locations. Of course, Christie's and Sotheby's do enormous volumes of other material, but we are including only books and book-related items. Much more information can be gleaned from the data made available to the public by the Americana Exchange. However, the AE cautions against drawing any wrong inferences from the data. For example, figures about selling over and under maximum and minimum estimates say more about the way the house estimates than about their success at selling. Some houses tend to estimate low, others high. It is a double-edged sword. Estimating low can encourage more people to bid, a positive, but may also encourage them to bid low, a negative. However, this information can be useful to the bidder in determining how to bid at a particular house. For example, a bid below estimate is less likely to be successful at a house that rarely sells below the low estimate than at one which often does.
Auction Prices Inch Forward in 2005 - By Michael Stillman none A caution must also be given for sell-through rates. These vary from 100% to below 50%. However, there are many factors which can affect this, from the size of the minimum acceptable bids, to whether the material has a large following or appeals only to a small niche, to minimum acceptable prices sellers may set (some sellers have been known to have unrealistic expectations, despite an auction house's best advice). Once again we caution against reading too much into certain figures. All of these fascinating charts are now available to AE members (and there is no charge to be a member). If you aren't currently a member, you can sign up for a free membership (it takes less than a minute). Click here to sign up now. You will receive access to seven charts, covering median and average prices, sell-through rates and sales above and below estimates, by month and by auction house, both in U.S. dollars and in original currencies. You will also have access to the AE 500 list of the 500 highest auction prices for 2005, plus charts from 2004 as well. If you are currently a member, log in to view these charts; if not, sign up and log in. Once logged in, you can view these results by clicking "2005 Auction Results" on the menu to the left (under Free Services). It is a most fascinating look at the world of book auctions, important for book buyers and sellers alike. Click here now for your free membership.

Auction Prices Inch Forward in 2005

- By Michael Stillman

Fifteen houses had median sales prices over $1,000 in 2005.

By Michael Stillman

The prices for rare and antiquarian books and manuscripts inched up a bit higher in 2005, statistics from the Americana Exchange Database of auction records indicated. The year 2005 was an active year, with over 160,000 lots having been offered at book and book-related auctions. The median price for 2005 was $420, an increase of 1.7% from $413 in 2004. See the last paragraph of this article for links to access the complete set of charts of 2005 auction results.

While results over the past century have shown the auction price index to increase at a much more rapid rate than the Consumer Price Index, 2005 was an exception. The CPI rose at double the rate of the book auction index, 3.5%. Though much of this was attributable to a 17% increase in the price of energy, the core rate of consumer inflation (computed by removing the volatile energy and food categories) still rose by 2.2%. This was only slightly greater than the rate of inflation for book prices at auction. Nevertheless, this still indicated that books, which generally appreciate at a substantially greater rate than that of inflation for consumer goods, had an off year in 2005.

The average price at auction slipped over $200 to $2,745. However, the average price is not considered meaningful for understanding changes in the marketplace. A small number of very high priced items coming up for sale in a particular year can greatly skew the average, even though this means little to the overall market. The median price, at which half of the 160,000 books sold at higher and half at lower prices, is not affected by a small number of high priced items, so it is the most reliable way of understanding what is taking place in the market.

Data collected from auction sales by the Americana Exchange revealed many more interesting facts about the traditional (as opposed to online) auction marketplace. The first and third quarters were again the most active. Offerings declined substantially in mid-summer, and to a lesser degree, mid-winter. Pricing also tended to be somewhat higher in the busy periods, perhaps a sign that auction houses hold their best material for the most active buying cycles.

While prices were up slightly, there was a small drop in the sell-through percentage. For 2005, 74% of the items listed sold, a decline from 76% last year. 26% failed to obtain the minimum acceptable bid. There was also a slight shift to items selling below the low estimated price versus selling over the high estimate. In 2005, of the lots which were sold, 48% were sold for more than the maximum, compared to 49% last year.

Auction Prices Inch Forward in 2005

- By Michael Stillman

none

In 2005, 29% sold for less than the low estimate, versus 27% in 2004. This 48%-29% ratio is a bit misleading, since unsold items are also items that were unable to attain the minimum bid. If these are added to items sold below the minimum, below minimum offers exceeded above maximum ones by a ratio of 48%-35%. Last year, it was 45%-37%. It would appear that anticipated selling prices in 2005 rose faster than did actual prices.

Results from individual auction houses are always intriguing, though the data may be more of a curiosity then meaningful. For example, high median prices primarily reflect the quality of material handled, rather than the performance of the auction house. However, this information can help a buyer determine which houses are most likely to offer items they can afford, or inform the seller which ones are appropriate to handle the level of books they wish to sell.

In 2005, as in 2004, the highest prices were achieved by the various Christie's and Sotheby's locations. These two houses have long dominated the very high-end book market, and 2005 was no exception. Christie's Paris auction had both the highest median and average sale, just as they did in 2004. Their median price was $6,696, down from $7,344 last year, but their average price rose from $22,391 to $24,899. Sotheby's New York just missed the top with a median of $6,600. Ten of the twelve highest medians were held by the five Christie's and five Sotheby's locations. Only Dorothy Sloan, of Austin, Texas, with a median price of $1,725, also broke into the top ten. The lowest for the big two was Christie's of London-South Kensington, still at a healthy $1,310. Four other houses had a median sale price over $1,000: Skinner's of Bolton, Massachusetts, Bonham's San Francisco, and Swann's and Doyle's of New York. Only four houses had a median sale of under $100, a sign that the level of material sold at traditional auctions still remains well above that of eBay.

The most active of houses was Bloomsbury's of London, with almost 15,000 lots. That was about 600 more than runner-up Christie's, though their number came across all five locations. Of course, Christie's and Sotheby's do enormous volumes of other material, but we are including only books and book-related items.

Much more information can be gleaned from the data made available to the public by the Americana Exchange. However, the AE cautions against drawing any wrong inferences from the data. For example, figures about selling over and under maximum and minimum estimates say more about the way the house estimates than about their success at selling. Some houses tend to estimate low, others high. It is a double-edged sword. Estimating low can encourage more people to bid, a positive, but may also encourage them to bid low, a negative. However, this information can be useful to the bidder in determining how to bid at a particular house. For example, a bid below estimate is less likely to be successful at a house that rarely sells below the low estimate than at one which often does.

Auction Prices Inch Forward in 2005

- By Michael Stillman

none

A caution must also be given for sell-through rates. These vary from 100% to below 50%. However, there are many factors which can affect this, from the size of the minimum acceptable bids, to whether the material has a large following or appeals only to a small niche, to minimum acceptable prices sellers may set (some sellers have been known to have unrealistic expectations, despite an auction house's best advice). Once again we caution against reading too much into certain figures.

All of these fascinating charts are now available to AE members (and there is no charge to be a member). If you aren't currently a member, you can sign up for a free membership (it takes less than a minute). Click here to sign up now. You will receive access to seven charts, covering median and average prices, sell-through rates and sales above and below estimates, by month and by auction house, both in U.S. dollars and in original currencies. You will also have access to the AE 500 list of the 500 highest auction prices for 2005, plus charts from 2004 as well. If you are currently a member, log in to view these charts; if not, sign up and log in. Once logged in, you can view these results by clicking "2005 Auction Results" on the menu to the left (under Free Services). It is a most fascinating look at the world of book auctions, important for book buyers and sellers alike. Click here now for your free membership.